Many of my friends have been getting more and more anxious as this election winds down asking can Obama really win? While many are Obama supporters they can’t help but wonder if the Republicans will “steal” another election. For almost a year now I have been playing pseudo-political analyst. To my credit, I have called it over 90% of the time, so people are beginning to trust my opinion.
I have to admit I am burned out.
Either way, my constant response to all the squeamish and overly cautious Obama supporters is quite simple:
How can McCain win?
It’s not will Obama lose, but how can McCain win?
I truly believe based on what I have been analyzing is that when this thing is over, Senator Obama’s campaign and I believe eventual victory will become Politics 101.
The Obama Campaign is a well oiled machine which has proven itself knowledgeable, strategic, versatile, and resilient.
Think about it: A relatively unknown Senator two years ago with a weird name not to mention race (it is an issue) catapults on the scene and becomes the nominee of the DNC knocking out many prominent well-known Democrats not to mention THE CLINTONS and this wall all done even with the spectacle of people questioning his religion, his ties to businessmen, radicals, and of course Jeremiah Wright. Even with people polling stating they would never vote for a black guy, Senator Obama overcame all of that and on top of that broke records in fund-raising, voter registration, THE RALLIES, etc.
How can his campaign not be what I called it when you look at the history of only a little over a year and a half?
And what does the McCain campaign do in response? They try the same tactics the Clinton campaign used. Let’s not forget they not only lost, but their campaign in organization alone makes the McCain camp look like a joke. Let’s not forget the McCain campaign more so than the Clinton campaign was plagued by staff shakeups, internal strife, controversy, and at one point was broke.
With all that in mind, what really makes people think they can pull this off?
And that is just a comparison of the campaigns and their histories. Now let’s examine some facts….
1. Most Republicans DO NOT support Senator McCain. Those who will vote for McCain are only doing so because of Saint Sarah of Wasilla. So most will be holding their nose in the voting booth. So problem number one is that he doesn’t even have the full support of his parties base, it has only solidified recently because of Saint Sarah and that’s only somewhat.
2. Speaking of Saint Sarah, her negatives are going through the roof as her novelty and exitement is wearing off. After disasterous interviews and a debate that at best staved off an outright revolt, it doesn’t look like she’s delivering any demographics other than the extreme right of the party mainly evangelicals. But as long as the media such as SNL, The Daily Show, Late Night TV, etc. keep reminding the country how new she is and her gaffes, not to mention the witchdoctor and hard-core evangelical stances, it doesn’t look like she’s helping bring over those outside of party faithfuls to their side anytime soon. You can’t win just by solidifying your base.
3. Voter Registration! This is the real story that isn’t being reported at all. Polling is a good tool, in fact Obama is winning in the national polls right now which is a good sign. But the problem with polling is that some people will lie. You can’t really determine who really will vote for whom until they get into the actual voting booth, especially when you poll about race, sex, and age. Now voter registration is another matter! The DNC in general has had record shattering voter registrations. Across the board in almost every state the DNC has in some cases almost doubled their rolls. Case in point, I hear a report that in Nevada, President Bush won in 2006 by around 6000 votes, well it appears the DNC are up 70, 000 this year. In Northern Virginia, it was recently reported in September that in Alexandria, VA alone they were up 110, 000 new voters. Have we forgotten the Democratic Primaries? The long lines….when you add up all the votes cast for Democrats this primary cycle it’s almost 40 million people who voted for Democrats. How many of those primary voters are likely to show up on election day? I venture most, will because if they would come out in the snow and rain as they did here in Virginia, DC, and Maryland they probably will in the general election. Furthermore, many, many, people registered to vote this year because of the exitement of the Democratic Party candidates, do you really think that people who registered this year in record numbers, some for the first time in their lives, would go through that trouble and not vote? What also is not being mentioned is the lack of exitement in the Republican Party. They have recently exited the base, but up until the last 30 days, their registration numbers have either remained the same as they have been, moved slightly, and in some cases actually decreased.
In my opinion, this is going to be the single most important factor in why McCain can’t win. The voter momentum is with the Democrats this year by a longshot.
4. Polling. The majority of the country is red. However, Obama is still ahead. Why is that? It’s because of my point number 3. In those places where the Democrats actually are, the blue areas, the numbers are not only large, but have greatly increased. So it says a lot that the candidate with the most “against” him and in this climate being formally unknown, weird name, religious questions, race, etc. is still polling ahead at this point. Furthermore, Obama’s strongest constituency the 30 and under crowd, are not adequately polled as most do not have LAN lines and primarily use their cell phones, so this demographic is rarely polled and are not counted in these polling numbers, so if everyone was polled, I believe the spread would be higher.
5. Electoral College. Think about that. The ticket that receives the most votes statewide ‘wins’ all of the votes cast by electors from that state. U.S. presidential campaigns concentrate on winning the popular vote in a combination of states that choose a majority of the electors. Think about what I said about Obama’s campaign, it’s strategy, and the numbers. Obama has a legendary grass roots operation in most states and the money to back it up. This is how he defeated Clinton and his campaign nearly called each and every state they won. They not only called the states, but called the deadlocked primary drama months before the event. His campaign is a well oiled machine and they know what they are doing. The Obama campaign has been running on a general election stragety all along. The main reason he won the primaries was because he focused and relied heavily on the caucus states who’s rules are similar to the general election’s electoral college. Therefore, they plan to win the election the same way. Focus on pockets within states that have high populations that lean their way and win the states based on that. So in a state like Virginia, they will focus on the north, Richmond area, and the Newport News/Hampton area. Because of the population densities, demographics, etc. He will carry Virginia, just as he is also planning in other former “red” states like Colorado, North Carolina, and even places like Georgia, Mississippi, and Florida.
6. Last but not least, The Electoral Map. As an aside to my point number 5 look at the current map. Based on current projections and all other factors considered, Obama has at least 3-5 ways to get 270 electoral votes, the McCain camp, does not. If he looses Florida or Ohio, it’s pretty much a done deal. Obama can afford to lose many more states than McCain can.
In conclusion, I could be wrong, but I challenge the political heads out there to consider my theories. It is way more probable that Obama would win and will win big, rather than the McCain campaign squeeking it out. What are your theories on how McCain can win? Outside of some HUGE revelation outside of everything else that has been thrown out there in the next 25 days, McCain is in big trouble. What it really appears is that both campaigns are following a typical pattern. McCain is trying his luck with Hillary Clintons strategy and Obama is running the same campaign he did in the primaries. The difference: Obama won the primary! This is why his campaign and the candidate himself have remained calm, steady, and collected at the helm, whereas the Clinton campaign and now the McCain campaign have been up and down with every passing moment, with new talking points every other day, trying to figure out how to take this guy out.
Maybe it’s just me…..:)
Interesting Voter information in NV, OH, IN, NC, FL…..
Nevada: Democrats have 93,727 more registered voters than Republicans as of 9/2008 voters of neither party (i.e. up for grabs): 292,043
Ohio: 1,250,277 more Democrats voted in the primary elections than Republicans as of 3/2008
Indiana: 740,930 new and updated registered voters in 2008.
North Carolina: Democrats have 776,333 more registered voters than Republicans as of 10/2008 voters of neither party (i.e. up for grabs): 1,332,135
Florida: Democrats have 465,617 more registered voters than Republicans as of 7/2008 voters of neither party (i.e. up for grabs): 338,837